UK workforce to face skills deficit of 3.1m

Jo Faragher

The UK workforce will face a deficit of 3.1m people by 2050 if skills shortages are not addressed, according to an analysis of employment rates and population changes.

According to specialist recruiter Randstad Education, teachers will be in shortest supply, followed by construction workers and nurses. The UK will fall short of 128,000 teachers thanks to an ageing workforce and restrictive migration. In the case of the latter, work-related emigration has risen 16% since 2007, while work-related immigration has fallen much more steeply, at 24%.

Randstad’s analysis took into account employment rates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, as a measure of demand. It then looked at the projected changes in UK population and working age rate for 2050 to establish what the gap might be between supply and demand for workers. It concluded that with a total population of 74.5m in 2050, the UK will require a working population of 35.4m to meet demand.

However, will a pool of just 45.1m people (60.5% of the population) forecast to the eligible to work in 2050, even if the employment rate matches pre-downturn levels of 71.6%, an ageing population will leave the UK with only 32.3m people in employment – 3.1m short of the 35.4m required.

While the teaching sector is likely to have a deficit of around 128,000 teachers, other sectors will also face large workforce shortfalls. Construction will face a predicted 66,800-person gap, while the health care sector could experience a 61,200 shortage, according to Randstad.