Employment stats tell different stories but ultimately point to a jobs recovery

Anna Scott

The Department for Work and Pensions’ regular press releases on the latest employment figures are beginning to sound familiar.

Each new Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics announces growth in the numbers of jobs across different UK regions, decreases in unemployment and falls in the numbers of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance.

This week, for example, Scotland is reported to have a lower than average rate of unemployment, and record-breaking numbers of women (67.2%) are now in work – the highest since records began.

The estimates and survey of households that comprise the ONS’ stats and Labour Force Survey give a broad overview of the labour market, and not the entire picture in full detail.

This month the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development’s Labour Market Outlook survey of 1,000 UK employers told us that the fast pace of growth in employment in recent months could be set to slow slightly, despite recruitment intentions remaining positive.

The LMO also found that 71% of employers will be awarding pay rises below the current rate of inflation, based on the Consumer Prices Index. This is the result of a “productivity hangover” affecting employers who have maintained and increased employment over a sustained period of falling output, according to the CIPD.

And while job numbers may be going up, it is debatable whether they are the right kind of jobs, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

The UK has a higher number of low-paid, low-skilled jobs than most developed countries and companies must be encouraged to compete more on quality and less on cost, according to research released by the charity this month.

The Future of the UK Labour Market report also called for greater demand for skilled workers from employers, as well as more focus on staff progression and putting existing skills to use.

Another snapshot of the UK employment market comes from the CIPD’s former chief economist John Philpott, now heading up consultancy The Jobs Economist, whose Jobs Audit suggested this week that increased numbers of people working shorter weeks is not the result of the financial crisis.

A structural shift in the jobs market has seen the numbers working part-time increase, contributing to a drop from an average of 33.1 hours worked per week in 1992 to 32.2 hours worked a week from the most recent quarterly figures, the Jobs Audit reports. 

These four pieces of research might tell slightly different stories of the employment market in the UK, but they all point to a jobs recovery. They also paint a picture of a different jobs market in 2014 than that in 2007.

The quantity of research that emerges on the UK jobs market each week can feel like information overload at times, but it arms recruiters with the best possible information of the nature of the very complicated market they are working in.